India is on course for its driest monsoon in 17 years as strengthening El Niño conditions contribute to a prolonged rainfall deficit, raising concerns over crop yields and food prices.
Cumulative rainfall during the June-to-September monsoon season is currently 15% below the long-term average, according to the India Meteorological Department. If the deficit persists through the end of the season, the 2026 monsoon would be the weakest since 2009, when rainfall was 18% below normal.
The India Meteorological Department had forecast a smaller 10% shortfall for the season in May. Its updated forecast had already indicated that below-normal rainfall was likely across much of the country, with a 90% of long-period average projection for the June-to-September season.
Weather conditions could become favorable for a tropical cyclone to develop over the Bay of Bengal during the final week of September. Such a system could bring additional rainfall to parts of eastern and northeastern India, potentially reducing regional rainfall deficits, according to Christian Werner, managing director of Australia-based Global Weather Climate Analytics, as quoted by Bloomberg.
However, Werner expects any such storm to have limited impact on the national rainfall picture, with the seasonal deficit potentially remaining between 13% and 16%.
Forecasters and academics are also tracking the season through CRUCIAL, a specialized monsoon prediction platform at Lancaster University in the UK. With less than two weeks remaining in the monsoon season, the platform has assigned a 68% probability that the season will end with a rainfall deficit of between 10% and 20%, according to its founder, planetary scientist Mark Roulston.
The monsoon is particularly important for India’s agricultural sector, with hundreds of millions of farmers depending on seasonal rainfall for irrigation. India is also one of the world’s largest producers of rice, sugar and cotton, while the June-to-September monsoon provides most of the country’s annual rainfall.
A prolonged rainfall deficit could affect both the current harvest and the following crop cycle. Rice, sugarcane and corn plantings are already running behind last season, while food inflation reached 5.95% in August, according to the figures cited in the report.
Economist Yuvika Singhal of QuantEco said every one-percentage-point shortfall in rainfall from normal levels typically adds around 25 basis points to food inflation.
The government has already taken measures to support supplies, including allowing duty-free sugar imports and selling onions at subsidized prices in some states as it seeks to contain food-price pressures.
The India Meteorological Department said conditions are also becoming favorable for the southwest monsoon to begin withdrawing from parts of western Rajasthan around September 19, marking the start of the seasonal retreat.
