The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that the weather conditions in December are likely to follow the warm trend seen across the country in recent months. A prolonged dry spell, which contributed to the country’s 55% rainfall deficit, was a key factor in the post-monsoon warmth. In fact, November’s rainfall was the third lowest since 2001, and southern India also experienced a significant shortfall of about 38% despite the active northeast monsoon during this period.
For the upcoming winter season (December to February), IMD predicts that both day and night temperatures will be milder than usual across most of India, with fewer instances of extreme cold. Minimum (night) temperatures are expected to remain above normal in many regions, and maximum (day) temperatures will likely be higher than usual, particularly in northern and central-eastern states like Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Bihar. This forecast contradicts expectations for a colder winter due to the possible formation of La Nina in the Pacific Ocean.
However, IMD’s Mrutyunjay Mohapatra clarified that La Nina has not yet developed, and neutral conditions are currently present in the Pacific. Even if La Nina forms, its impact would only be felt in the coming months. The absence of western disturbances in November led to dry conditions in north India, contributing to higher temperatures, a trend that may persist. IMD’s data also highlights rising temperatures over the years, a trend that aligns with global warming, with the warmest Novembers recorded in the last 25 years.
